Himachal Pradesh election

Bharatiya Janata Party Himachal Pradesh Vidhan Sabha chunaav Shri @DhumalHP-ji ke netritva mein ladegi," BJP president Amit Shah tweeted minutes after proclaiming two times chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal as the party's chief ministerial candidate for the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections.

Addressing himself directly to incumbent Congress chief minister Virbhadra Singh at a crowded rally in Rajgarh in Sirmour district, Shah said, "I will make it clear today. The BJP is fighting elections in the country under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And in Himachal Pradesh, the BJP is fighting the elections under Prem Kumar Dhumal's leadership. He is our face for the polls." Pausing momentarily for his message to settle in, he added, "Dhumalji is a former chief minister and leader of the opposition, but after December 18, he will be chief minister." The crowd of very evidently pleased saffron supporters erupted into slogans, "Modi-ji ko Jai Shri Ram! Dhumal-ji ko Jai Shri Ram!"

Shah's proclamation, which was promptly endorsed by PM Modi on Twitter, has finally given the BJP a face in the Himachal elections. But with barely a week's campaigning left before the voting on November 9, many, including several state BJP leaders, believe the announcement may have come too late.

"We have, avoidably, gifted Virbhadra Singh and the Congress an opportunity to rebuild and turn what would have been a certain victory for the BJP into a contest," a senior BJP leader told India Today, citing the party's internal feedback that shows the Congress regaining considerable ground.

While Modi and Shah did not name Dhumal till it got precariously close to polling day, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi acted with unusual deftness, declaring Virbhadra as the party's chief ministerial candidate well ahead of the election schedule notification on October 12.

That Dhumal's selection was more of a course correction than the carefully crafted strategy that Shah is known for is evident from the surprise it has evoked within the BJP itself. As late as on October 29, when finance minister Arun Jaitley released the BJP's poll manifesto in Shimla, senior party leaders were defending the leadership's decision to not name a chief minister as "a matter of strategy". Union health minister Jagat Prakash Nadda, who was widely seen as Dhumal's main rival for the top job, said in an interview on October 29 that "the people should decide [who they want as chief minister]". Asked why the BJP had not declared a name in Himachal when B.S. Yeddyurappa had been declared the party's face in Karnataka much ahead of the assembly polls next year, Nadda said: "There have been many times when we haven't projected a chief minister. It is a matter of strategy, which differs from time to time and state to state. There wasn't any face in Haryana, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand or Uttar Pradesh."

Most analysts believe that the declaration of Dhumal's candidacy will benefit the BJP, which already had the edge given the anti-incumbency the Congress faces in the state. Also, since the time the BJP first captured power in Himachal in 1977, the trend there has been to not return an incumbent party to power.

While there is visible cheer in the BJP camp, Shah's October 31 announcement doesn't appear to have dampened Virbhadra's spirits. His close aides say the animosity between Dhumal and Nadda's supporters is now likely to be out in the open. They also point out that BJP veteran and former chief minister Shanta Kumar, who wields considerable influence in 15 assembly segments in Kangra, would not be pleased with Dhumal's anointment.

Dhumal was addressing an election rally in Jwalamukhi (Kangra) when he was informed about Shah's decision. Thanking Modi and Shah, he declared the move would catapult the BJP from its target of 50-plus seats to over 60 in the 68-member assembly.

Results from the single-phase polling will be declared alongside those for the Gujarat assembly elections. Watch this space on December 18.